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The National Weather Service (NWS) in Mobile/Pensacola updated its forecast Friday for winter weather coming into the area early next week.

Bitter cold conditions are expected Monday through Wednesday. Minimum wind chill values will be in the single digits Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Some areas may not rise above freezing on Tuesday.

Low to medium (20-50%) chance for frozen precipitation. The chances of impactful winter weather are increasing, but significant uncertainty remains. Timing begins as early as Tuesday morning and ends as late as Tuesday night. It is too soon to determine how much accumulation will be realized.

Wind chills will remain below freezing areawide from early Monday morning through Wednesday afternoon. Extreme Cold Warnings are likely to be issued for this period by Sunday.

Interior areas of Alabama may not rise above freezing Tuesday. Most areas will only rise above freezing for a few hours on Tuesday afternoon.

Subfreezing temperatures will be in place as an upper-level disturbance moves through the region with growing potential for wintry precipitation impacting the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Snow and sleet look to be the most likely precipitation type.

The NWS said it does not yet know the track of the low-pressure system and if the moisture will be available for precipitation, the exact timing and duration of any wintry precipitation or specific accumulation amounts.

The probability of at least one half an inch of snow Tuesday is around 40-50%. Confidence decreases somewhat the further north of the state. There is a 10-30% chance that snow accumulations could exceed two inches.

Road conditions could deteriorate rapidly with any accumulation of snow or sleet.

The most likely time for freezing rain to occur would be Tuesday/Tuesday evening. With a 10-20% chance of freezing rain across the southern half of the area, if the timing of the precipitation slows or the surface low moves a litter further north, the chance for freezing rain may increase. Even a trace of freezing rain could create hazardous conditions on elevated roads.

The precipitation forecast is very dependent on factors that are difficult to pinpoint with certainty this far in advance. There are two scenarios that NWS is watching, but it should be noted that a later arrival of precipitation will increase the chance for freezing rain.

The NWS and local emergency management agencies (EMA) are continuing to monitor the development and track of the low-pressure system on Tuesday and if there will be enough moisture for precipitation to develop. Two scenarios are predicted for weather impacts.

Scenario 1 (current forecast): Low pressure develops in the western Gulf and tracks eastward, with precipitation beginning in the late morning or early afternoon. This will bring the best chance for wintry precipitation, with snow being the most likely precipitation type.
Scenario 2: The low-pressure system doesn’t develop and/or tracks too far south. Less moisture will be in place, with limited to no precipitation.

Residents are urged to protect people, pets, pipes and plants from cold weather. People should minimize time outdoors for persons and pets and prepare for possible power outages. Check on elderly and other vulnerable people to ensure they are okay.

Insulating pipes, where possible and opening sink cabinets to expose pipes to heated air can help prevent damage caused by frozen, broken pipes. Disconnecting hoses and turning off water sprinklers is recommended.

This article will be updates as new information is available.